Final HarrisX 2026 Midterms Poll: Democrats Ahead in Senate Races Across Texas, Michigan and Ohio; Abbott and Benson Lead Comfortably in Texas and Michigan, Acton and Ramaswamy Statistically Tied in Ohio
‍

GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: REPUBLICANS LEAD BY 4 IN TEXAS, WHILE DEMOCRATS HOLD A 10-POINT LEAD IN MICHIGAN; OHIO IS EFFECTIVELY TIED

SENATE RACES: TALARICO LEADS THE TEXAS SENATE RACE BY 6 POINTS; EL-SAYED LEADS THE MICHIGAN SENATE RACE BY 3; BROWN LEADS THE SENATE RACE BY 2, AND TIED WHEN UNDECIDEDS AND THIRD-PARTY SUPPORTERS ARE PUSHED

GOVERNOR RACES: ABBOTT LEADS BY 5 POINTS IN TEXAS; BENSON LEADS BY 12 IN MICHIGAN; RAMASWAMY LEADS THE GOVERNOR’S RACE BY 2, WITH ACTON UP 2 WHEN UNDECIDEDS AND THIRD-PARTY SUPPORTERS ARE PUSHED

WASHINGTON, DC / November 3, 2026 / HarrisX, a Stagwell (NASDAQ:STGW) company, today released the results of its final HarrisX 2026 Midterms poll. The poll was conducted online in Michigan, Ohio, and Texas from October 30 to November 1, 2026, among 1,993 registered voters. The results were then filtered by voters who are likely to vote.  

Democrat James Talarico leads the Senate race in Texas, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads the Michigan Senate race within the margin of error, and the Senate race in Ohio is a virtual tie. Republican Greg Abbott leads the Texas governor’s race, Democrat Jocelyn Benson leads in Michigan, and Ohio’s governor’s race is statistically tied.

““Voters are divided and splitting the ticket in several key battleground races: Democrat James Talarico is leading comfortably in the Texas Senate race, while incumbent Republican Greg Abbott holds a strong lead in the governor’s race. In Michigan, Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers are in a statistical tie, with El-Sayed holding the edge, while Democrat Jocelyn Benson has opened a double-digit lead over John James in the governor’s race. Finally, in Ohio, Sherrod Brown holds a narrow lead over Jon Husted, while Vivek Ramaswamy appears to be slightly ahead of Amy Acton, although both races remain effectively tied,” said Dritan Nesho, CEO and Chief Pollster, HarrisX. “This is a sign that neither party has fully won over voters in these key battleground states, with many looking beyond party labels and making their decisions based on the individual candidates in each race.”
‍

TEXAS

• Republicans have a four-point lead on the generic ballot for Congress (48% Democrat, 52% Republican).

• On the ballot for Senate including undecideds and the option to support a third-party candidate, James Talarico leads Ken Paxton by six points (50% to 44%). After pushing the undecideds/third party, Talarico leads by six points (53% to 47%).

• Greg Abbott leads by five points in the race for Governor (46% Gina Hinojosa, 51% Abbott), with a four-point lead when undecideds/third party are pushed (48% Hinojosa, 52% Abbott).

• Independents favor Talarico over Paxton 66% to 24% and Hinojosa over Abbott 57% to 39%.

• With a significant gap in the races for Senate and Governor, 8% of voters split their ticket to vote for both James Talarico and Greg Abbott.

OHIO

• The generic ballot is an effective tie (50% Democrat, 50% Republican).

• Sherrod Brown leads by two points in the race for Senate (47% Brown, 45% Jon Husted), narrowing to an effective tie when undecideds/third party are pushed (50% Brown, 50% Husted).

• Vivek Ramaswamy has a two-point lead over Amy Acton in the race for Governor (45% Acton, 47% Ramaswamy). When undecideds/third party are pushed, Acton moves to a two-point edge (51% Acton, 49% Ramaswamy).

• Independents favor Brown over Husted 56% to 24% and Acton over Ramaswamy 47% to 33%.

MICHIGAN

• Democrats have a ten-point lead on the generic ballot (55% Democrat, 45% Republican).

• Abdul El-Sayed has a three-point lead in the race for Senate (48% El-Sayed, 45% Mike Rogers). When undecideds/third party are pushed, El-Sayed leads by four points (52% El-Sayed, 48% Rogers).

• Jocelyn Benson leads by 12 points in the race for Governor (53% Benson, 41% John James), remaining a 12-point lead when undecideds/third party are pushed (56% Benson, 44% James).

• Independents favor El-Sayed over Rogers 57% to 30%, and Benson over James 62% to 22%.

• El-Sayed is notably underperforming Benson, and 7% of voters are splitting their ticket to vote for Benson and Rogers.

Download the key results here:

Michigan (RV): View Full Crosstabs
Michigan (LV): View Full Crosstabs
Ohio (RV): View Full Crosstabs
Ohio (LV): View Full Crosstabs
Texas (RV): View Full Crosstabs
Texas (LV): View Full Crosstabs

The HarrisX 2026 Midterms poll was conducted online within Michigan, Ohio, and Texas from October 30 to November 1, 2026, among 1,993 registered voters. Recruitment occurs through a broad variety of professional, validated respondent panels to expand the sampling frame as wide as possible and minimize the impact of any given panel on recruiting methods. The results reflect representative samples of voters in each state, weighted for age, gender, region, race/ethnicity, party, income, and education where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. Results were filtered to a sample of likely voters within each state. The margin of error for the likely-voter samples is +/-3.8 percentage points in Michigan, +/-4.4 in Ohio and +/-4.3 in Texas.

‍

‍
‍About HarrisX

HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

‍