Originally published on Deseret News by Samuel Benson on Oct. 17, 2024

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Vice President Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump, according to the latest Deseret News/HarrisX poll.

When asked who they will support in next month’s presidential election, 47% said they will vote for Harris, while 45% said they will support Trump. Nine percent said they are still undecided.

When those undecided voters were asked which way they lean, and those “leaners” were factored into the larger sample, Harris still maintains a slight edge, 51% to 49%.

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The poll was conducted online from October 9-11 among 2,010 registered U.S. voters. The margin of error for the total sample — which reflects a nationally representative sample of registered voters — is +/- 2.2 percentage points. The full results of the poll can be found here.

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Most voters think Harris will win

Even as Harris maintains a razor-thin margin over Trump, a slightly larger share of voters believe she will win — regardless of whether they will support her.

Voters were asked: “Regardless of who you support, if you had to pick, who do you think is more likely to win in the presidential election in November, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump?”

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In response, 53% of voters said they believe Harris will win, compared to 47% who say Trump will win.

Of that share, 8% of voters who plan to vote for Trump say they think Harris will win.

With less than three weeks until Election Day, Democrats are “increasingly anxious” that Harris’ victory is anything but guaranteed, CNN reported. In the seven battleground states, polls consistently show the race tied or within the margin of error.

Ballots have already been mailed in two dozen states, and voters in several other states began early voting. In Georgia, a key battleground state, a record number of early voters arrived when polls opened Tuesday.

In the Deseret News/HarrisX poll, 37% of voters said they have already received their ballot.

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Country, economy on wrong track, most say

When asked if they believe the country is on the right track or off on the wrong track, a majority of voters — 63% — say the country is on the wrong track, while 26% say it is on the right track.

The same goes for views on the U.S. economy: 63% of voters say it is on the wrong track, while 28% say it is on the right track.

There is a significant partisan divide on this issue. While a majority of Democrats (52%) think the economy is on the right track, only 10% of Republicans think so. And while a plurality of Democrats (48%) believe the country is on the right track, just 9% of Republicans say so. About 7 out of 10 independent voters say the economy and the country are on the wrong track.

The figures pose a difficult challenge for Harris, who is campaigning on the successes of the Biden-Harris administration, but must also navigate widespread discontent with the state of the country. In her bid for the presidency, Harris — who ascended atop the Democratic ticket after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race in July — has frequently called for a “new generation of leadership.” But she has been careful not to criticize Biden or his record in office.

During an interview with ABC News’ “The View” last week, Harris said there “not a thing” she would do differently than Biden during their time in office together. Harris has served as Biden’s vice president since they took office in January 2021.

“I’ve been a part of most of the decisions that have had impact,” Harris said on “The View.”

Harris’ favorability outruns Trump’s

Of the four candidates on the major-party tickets — Harris, Trump, Sen. JD Vance and Gov. Tim Walz — Harris has the highest favorability rating: 47% of respondents said they have a “very” or “somewhat” favorable view of her, while 48% said they view her unfavorably.

Harris has undergone a massive shift in her favorability ratings since Biden dropped out of the race. In a matter of two months, between Biden’s exit and late September, Harris dug out of a 17-point polling deficit (in July, 54% of Americans had unfavorable views of her, versus 36% favorable); by mid-September, an even share of Americans — 46.5% — view her positively or negatively, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. That marked the first time since 2021 that Harris’ favorability rating was above water.

Meanwhile, Trump’s favorability rating in the Deseret/HarrisX poll sits at 44%, with 51% viewing him unfavorably. Among self-described independent voters, the figures are even worse: 36% view him favorably, while 57% view him unfavorably.

Both of the major-party running mates, Vance and Walz, are still relatively unknown to a large chunk of Americans: 22% of respondents said they’ve never heard of Walz or have no opinion of him, while 19% said the same of Vance.

Vance sits at a 38% favorability rating and 42% unfavorability, while Walz has 37% favorability and 41% unfavorability.

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