KEY POINTS

• New statewide poll finds Utahns narrowly divided on tariff expectations.
• When parsed by political affiliation, difference in tariff opinions broadens widely.
• Opinions shift in view of near-term versus long-term tariff impacts.

Weeks of tariff proclamations and, in some cases, tariff retractions, have roiled U.S. and global investment markets, erasing trillions of dollars in stock value, fomenting uncertainty in the business sector and pushing economists toward predictions of bleak times ahead for the domestic economy.

But President Donald Trump has urged citizens and investors to take a long view on his new tariff strategy promising the economic pain will be short-lived and the approach will help quell the flow of illicit drugs and illegal immigration across U.S. borders while balancing international trade inequities and boosting manufacturing jobs.

But is that message resonating with Utah voters?

A new Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll found a slight majority of Utahns see the tariffs having an adverse effect on the state and national economies. At the same time, just over half say the trade levies will lead to long-term economic growth.

In a Deseret News interview, Jason Perry, director of the University of Utah’s Hinckley Institute, said he believes the disparity reflects a reality-based view among poll participants.

“We’re asking these questions at a time when people are seeing their cost of living going up while their retirement accounts and 401k values are going down,” Perry said. “It is the basis for a view that things need to change and those changes need to be made over the long term.”

Perry said the opposing takes on tariff strategy effectiveness, and the marked partisan divide that tracks with those viewpoints, is very much reflecting the moment when it comes to both the local and national political landscape.

“The tariff strategy is resonating with Republicans throughout this poll,” Perry said. “They see them as more positive and more effective across every question. And it’s simply not the case, in any of these questions, with Democrats. They see it as negative on the local and national levels as well as long-term.”

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View of tariffs on the Utah economy

So, how are Utahns feeling about the tumult surrounding new trade levies?

The poll found a narrow majority of Utah voters are feeling uneasy about the near-term impacts of trade tariffs on the state and local economies but a similarly slim preponderance of people think the strategy may show positive impacts further down the road.

When asked, “What impacts, if any, do you think Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs would have on Utah’s economy?”, 44% of respondents said the impacts would be somewhat or very positive while 51% said they believe the outcomes would be somewhat or very negative.

When viewed through a partisan lens, opinions on tariff impacts to the state’s economy were starkly different.

While 69% of poll participants that self-identified as Republicans said tariffs would have a somewhat or positive impact on their state’s economy, only 14% of Democrats agreed. And, conversely, while 26% of GOP respondents said the impacts would be somewhat or very negative, 85% of Democrats fell into that category.

There were also noteworthy gender differences in respondent opinions about how trade levies would impact their local economy.

While 52% of men who participated in the poll believe tariff impacts on Utah would be some level of positive, only 37% of women said the same. On the other side of the response divide, 56% of women told poll takers they felt tariff impacts would be somewhat or very negative while 45% of men were in agreement.

HarrisX Interactive conducted the poll of 800 registered Utah voters April 9-12. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

View of tariffs on the national economy

Poll participants shared similar views when asked about potential tariff impacts on the national economy.

While 45% said tariffs would have somewhat or very positive impacts on the U.S. economy, 52% said they expected those impacts would be somewhat or very negative.

The partisan split on national impacts tracked closely with the state economy question with 72% of Republicans saying tariff impacts will be somewhat or very positive and 27% expecting somewhat or very negative results. Democrats split the other direction with 11% seeing somewhat or very positive tariff impacts in store and 87% believing tariffs will affect the U.S. economy in somewhat or very negative ways.

And the gender differential was nearly identical in both the local and national economic impact questions.

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Short-term pain, long-term gain?

Mild pessimism swung toward tempered optimism when it came to respondents’ thoughts about longer term tariff impacts.

When asked, “Do you think Donald Trump’s trade tariffs will ultimately lead to long term economic growth or decline?”, 53% of poll participants came down on growth while 47% believe the future impacts of tariffs will be economic decline.

And, the partisan divide remained in place among Utahns who participated in the survey with 79% of Republicans expecting long-term growth from the tariff strategy against 14% of Democrats. Among those who predicted economic decline, 21% were Republicans and 86% were Democrats.

While the optimism shift may read as statistical dissonance, the same dynamic showed up in recent national polling conducted by You.gov for CBS News where respondents had a more positive outlook for long-term prospects for tariff impacts than in the near-term.

Where new tariffs stand now

Last week, Trump abruptly declared a 90-day pause on dozens of country-specific levies outlined on April 2 but kept a separate, 10% blanket tariff in place. The sole exception in Trump’s declared pause on reciprocal fees was China, which instead saw a tariff increase, originally communicated as a lift to 125% but was later corrected to 145%.

Trump singled out China in his Truth Social post announcing the tariff pause on April 9.

“At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable,” Trump wrote.

Here’s where U.S. tariffs stand for the moment:

• China tariffs are at 145%, following a series of increases.
• Tariffs of 25% are in place on steel and aluminum imports, imported automobiles and goods from Canada and Mexico not covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
• Imports from all other countries are subject to a 10% trade levy.

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