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Article originally posted by Forbes on Nov. 4, 2024 01:51pm EST by Sara Dorn

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Topline

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are statistically tied in the final Forbes/HarrisX pre-election survey, with Harris showing a razor-thin one-point lead—the latest poll to show there’s no clear leader just a day before the election.

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Key Facts

Harris leads Trump 49%-48% among likely voters—within the one-point margin of error—in a four-way race with third-party candidates Jill Stein and Cornel West on the ballot, with 2% backing West and 1% backing Stein (the results include those who have already voted, and account for respondents who are undecided but leaning toward one candidate).

Harris leads Trump 51%-49% in a two-way race when the poll includes respondents who are undecided but leaning toward one candidate, and she’s ahead 49%-47%, in a two-way race among voters who have settled on a candidate, with 4% undecided.

Among those who have already voted, 57% cast their ballots for Harris and 40% voted for Trump, according to the survey—reflecting typical partisan voting trends as more Democrats than Republicans tend to vote early.

Harris was up 49%-48% in the previous Forbes/HarrisX poll released Thursday and Trump led 49%-48% in the groups’ Oct. 22 poll in a four-way contest.

Forbes/HarrisX surveyed 4,520 registered voters online between Oct. 30 and Nov. 1.

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Crucial Quote

“The race will come down to turnout tomorrow, especially for Trump,” Dritan Nesho, CEO and chief pollster at HarrisX, told Forbes in an email. “Trump has historically outperformed polling in both 2016 and 2020 due to his ability to get low propensity voters to show up and win the voters on the fence who make up their mind at the last minute. If he does that again, he'll be able to close the early vote advantage that Harris has accumulated.”

What To Watch For

Nesho recommends watching for Trump’s turnout and the gender gap. Harris has a 10-point lead with women in the HarrisX survey, while Trump has a 10-point lead with men.

Big Number

49%. That’s the share of voters in the seven swing states who said they’ll vote for Harris in a four-way race, compared to 48% who said they’d back Trump (the figures include so-called “leaners” and those who have already voted).

Key Background

The survey is the latest to show a near-tie less than a day before the election. Harris leads Trump by a slim 1.1 points in Five Thirty Eight’s polling average, while Trump is narrowly ahead in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona, and Harris leads in Wisconsin, and Michigan.

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